4.15.2008 1:27 PM

Sea-Level Rise Will Be 3X Worse Than U.N. Predicts

Scientist: My Model Is More Accurate

Sea levels could rise nearly five feet this century in some parts of the world as glaciers and ice caps melt, a new scientific model predicts. That estimate is three times higher than the level predicted by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and represents the latest piece of evidence in a hotly debated part of global warming science.

The new research was presented at a European Geosciences Union conference, Reuters reported.

The margin of error and uncertainty in these predictions is still large. The new computer model predicts a range of approximately 2.5 to 5 feet of sea-level rise. This model's claim to fame is that it includes data that reflects recent advances in the understanding of ice dynamics, which may be leading to more rapid melting of the Arctic and parts of the Antarctic regions. As ice sheets melt, glaciers can become uncorked and the flow of meltwater through cracks can lubricate their slide to the sea.

Experts agree, as Reuters points out, that poor, low-lying nations are most vulnerable, no matter how much sea levels rise. Bangladesh, for instance, could be ground zero for a migration catastrophe if the hurricane- and flood-prone nation is inundated with more water. The refuge crisis would likely spill over into neighboring nations, leading to political and social instability, and, possibly, serious violence.

Find this article at: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/sea-level-rise-47041506