Rare December Tropical Storm Brews in Atlantic (UPDATE)

What could become Tropical Storm Olga is menacing Puerto Rica, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Photo: NOAA

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The National Hurricane Center maintained its warning this evening, in a special tropical disturbance statement, that a rare tropical cyclone may be brewing about 130 miles east of Puerto Rico.

If it reaches tropical storm strength it would be named Olga, the 15th named storm of the season. The National Hurricane Center said there is a possibility the storm will grow into a tropical or sub-tropical storm "anytime" in the next 24 hours.

The Atlantic hurricane season ended Nov. 30, and while tropical storms in December and January aren't unprecedented, they are not common either.

Even if the storm doesn't strengthen, it could cause damage, as the National Hurricane Center put it, in characteristic all-caps:

WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER ... IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ... PUERTO RICO ... AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ... AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The 2007 Atlantic storm season failed to reach predicted levels of intensity by most measures. Although there were many tropical storms most disintegrated before approaching land, and fewer hurricanes formed than predicted. However, there were several outstanding and record-breaking aspects to the season, including back-to-back Category 5 hurricane landfalls, both in Mexico, and several rapidly-intensifying hurricanes. The prospect of a late-season tropical storm adds another discordant note to a remarkable, but still "under-achieving" season.

The debate about how and whether global warming will influence tropical cyclones continues to rage. As do the storms – even, potentially, very late in the season.

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