Hurricane Fred Is Big, Powerful ... and Unlikely to Strike Land

Hurricane Fred

Photo: NOAA

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Hurricane Fred grew into the second major hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season Wednesday, following Hurricane Bill's footsteps. By Thursday morning, however, Hurricane Fred had lost strength and was classified as a Category 2 hurricane, with 105 mph sustained winds.

Hurricane Fred is not expected to menace land. Having formed in the western Atlantic, closer to Africa than America, Fred is expected to dissipate into a tropical storm Saturday, and continue to weaken before reaching across the ocean.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, the 12th named storm of the season grew into Hurricane Linda overnight. Linda is hundreds of miles from land, and is expected to dissipate before menacing any land.

Hurricane Fred - Projected Path

Credit: U.S. Navy

2009 Hurricane Season to Date

In the Atlantic, there have been six named tropical storms and two hurricanes, Bill and Fred. In the Pacific, there have been 12 named storms, including five hurricanes: Andres, Carlos, Felicia, Guillermo and Jimena.

Last year, the Atlantic saw 16 named tropical storms -- from Arthur on May 30, which killed five and caused $78 million in damages to Belize, to Hurricane Paloma, which formed Nov. 5 and struck Cuba as a Category 4 monster that was the second-most intense hurricane ever recorded in November. All in all, there were eight Atlantic hurricanes and storms caused an estimated $41 billion in damages and left hundreds dead -- more than 800 in Haiti alone. The eastern Pacific also saw 16 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, starting with Tropical Storm Alma on May 29 and ending Nov. 5 when Tropical Storm Polo petered out.

The 2008 hurricane season produced several record-breaking storms, including Tropical Storm Alma; the easternmost named storm ever to form in the Pacific and Hurricane Bertha, the longest-lived Atlantic tropical storm on record. Four storms were notable -- or deadly -- enough that the names were retired -- Alma, Gustav, Ike and Paloma. Hurricane Gustav caused $4 billion damage in Louisiana and killed 112 people, including 77 in Haiti. Hurricane Ike was the season's strongest hurricane, and the third-costliest storm (more than $19 billion) to hit the U.S., devastating Galveston, Texas, and causing about 100 deaths in the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

What's in store for 2009?

2009 Hurricane Forecast

Whether and how global warming will influence hurricane frequency or intensity is still a matter of genuine scientific debate. In recent years, scientists have at least identified several factors -- from the extent of rainfall in Africa to the presence or absence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific -- that help them predict the intensity of a hurricane season ahead of time. The recent formation of a new El Nino pattern in the eastern Pacific should reduce the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes this year.

Here's how the two most prominent forecasters revised their forecasts in early August:

The federal government in May had predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic, with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks. Now, it predicts a 50% probability of a near-normal season, a 40% probability of a below-normal season, and just a 10% probability of an above-normal season.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 70% chance of:

• Named storms: 11 (down from 9-14)
• Hurricanes: 3-6 (down from 4-7)
• Major hurricanes: 1-2 (down from 1-3)

The other major forecaster in the U.S., Colorado State University, revised down its expectations for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season once already, and did it again in August:

• Named storms: 10 (down from 12)
• Hurricanes: 4 (down from 6)
• Major hurricanes: 2 (same as previous forecast)

Further, the Colorado forecasters predicted that the probability of a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline is 46% (down from 54%).

Forecasters warn that the number of storms, and their intensity is only one key determinant of risk of property damage and loss of life: The biggest factor is who lives in harm's way, and how well they prepare. Some 35 million U.S. residents live in hurricane-prone regions, and experts urge them to prepare.

When those storms do come, they will be given names. According to the Saffir Simpson Scale, Tropical cyclones are given names when they achieve tropical storm strength, with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Hurricanes are tropical storms that have sustained winds that exceed 74 mph, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) have sustained winds that exceed 111 mph.

Here are the tropical storm and hurricane names for 2009:

2009 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Names - Atlantic

Names (hurricane or tropical storm) refer to the highest strength the storm reached, while dates refer to the dates during which the storm retained at least tropical storm strength.

1. Tropical Storm Ana - Aug. 11-13
2. Hurricane Bill (Category 3) - Aug 15-24. Hurricane Bill made landfall on Newfoundland.
3. Tropical Storm Claudette - Aug. 16-17. Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on Santa Rosa Island, Flor.
4. Tropical Storm Danny - Aug 26-29. The death of one North Carolina boy was blamed on rip currents spawned by Tropical Storm Danny.
5. Tropical Storm Erika - Sept. 1-3
6. Hurricane Fred (Category 3) - Sept. 7-
7. Grace
8. Henri
9. Ida
10. Joaquin
11. Kate
12. Larry
13. Mindy
14. Nicholas
15. Odette
16. Peter
17. Rose
18. Sam
19. Teresa
20. Victor
21. Wanda

2009 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Names - Eastern North Pacific

1. Hurricane Andres (Category 1) - June 21-23
2. Tropical Storm Blanca - July 6-8
3. Hurricane Carlos (Category 1) - July 10-16
4. Tropical Storm Dolores - July 15-16
5. Tropical Storm Enrique - Aug. 3-7
6. Hurricane Felicia (Category 4) - Aug. 4-11
7. Hurricane Guillermo (Category 3) - Aug. 12-19
8. Tropical Storm Hilda - Aug. 22-23
9. Tropical Storm Ignacio - Aug. 24-27
10. Hurricane Jimena (Category 4) - Aug 29-Sept. 3. On Sept. 1, Hurricane Jimena made landfall in Cabo San Lazaro, on Mexico's Baja California, as a Category 2 hurricane, and then again as a Category 1 hurricane in San Buenaventura, Mexico.
11. Tropical Storm Kevin - Aug 29-31
12. Hurricane Linda (Category 1) - Sept. 7-
13. Marty
14. Nora
15. Olaf
16. Patricia
17. Rick
18. Sandra
19. Terry
20. Vivian
21. Waldo
22. Xina
23. York
24. Zelda

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