Tropical Storm Danny Could Become Hurricane On Projected Path Toward U.S. East Coast

Tropical Storm Danny on August 27, 2009.

Photo: NOAA

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Tropical Storm Danny, moving slowly through the Atlantic, is expected to rapidly increase in strength and speed as it zooms up along the U.S. East Coast in the coming days, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

Like its predecessor, Hurricane Bill, Danny is projected to follow a path up the East Coast and toward Nova Scotia, Canada.

As Danny reaches hurricane strength, tropical storm-force winds could affect coastal and some inland areas of several states, from the northern tip of South Carolina up through parts of New York and all of New England, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. While the chance of tropical-storm force wind readings in most states is small -- on the order of 10%-20% for most U.S. territory in the watch zone -- portions of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, Long Island in New York, Cape Cod in Massachusetts and parts of coastal Maine face up to a 30% to 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds. There's even a small chance that Cape Cod could see hurricane-force winds from Danny.

For now, the National Hurricane Center is urging residents from the Carolinas through New England to monitor the projected path of Tropical Storm Danny, so that they can be prepared. Check the charts below and see a recap of the 2009 hurricane season to date, as well as forecasts for the rest of the season from the government and university experts.

Tropical Storm Danny - Projected Path

Tropical Storm Danny - Wind Potential Forecast

2009 Hurricane Season to Date

Tropical Storm Danny is the fifth named storm in the Atlantic so far in 2009. There has been one hurricane: Bill. Tropical Storm Ignacio, which only recently dissipated into a tropical depression, is the ninth named storm in the Eastern Pacific. There have been four hurricanes: Andres, Carlos, Felicia and Guillermo.

Last year, the Atlantic saw 16 named tropical storms -- from Arthur on May 30, which killed five and caused $78 million in damages to Belize, to Hurricane Paloma, which formed Nov. 5 and struck Cuba as a Category 4 monster that was the second-most intense hurricane ever recorded in November. All in all, there were eight Atlantic hurricanes and storms caused an estimated $41 billion in damages and left hundreds dead -- more than 800 in Haiti alone. The eastern Pacific also saw 16 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, starting with Tropical Storm Alma on May 29 and ending Nov. 5 when Tropical Storm Polo petered out.

The 2008 hurricane season produced several record-breaking storms, including Tropical Storm Alma; the easternmost named storm ever to form in the Pacific and Hurricane Bertha, the longest-lived Atlantic tropical storm on record. Four storms were notable -- or deadly -- enough that the names were retired -- Alma, Gustav, Ike and Paloma. Hurricane Gustav caused $4 billion damage in Louisiana and killed 112 people, including 77 in Haiti. Hurricane Ike was the season's strongest hurricane, and the third-costliest storm (more than $19 billion) to hit the U.S., devastating Galveston, Texas, and causing about 100 deaths in the Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

What's in store for 2009?

2009 Hurricane Forecast

Whether and how global warming will influence hurricane frequency or intensity is still a matter of genuine scientific debate. In recent years, scientists have at least identified several factors -- from the extent of rainfall in Africa to the presence or absence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific -- that help them predict the intensity of a hurricane season ahead of time. The recent formation of a new El Nino pattern in the eastern Pacific should reduce the number and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes this year.

Here's how the two most prominent forecasters revised their forecasts in early August:

The federal government in May had predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic, with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks. Now, it predicts a 50% probability of a near-normal season, a 40% probability of a below-normal season, and just a 10% probability of an above-normal season.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 70% chance of:

• Named storms: 11 (down from 9-14)
• Hurricanes: 3-6 (down from 4-7)
• Major hurricanes: 1-2 (down from 1-3)

The other major forecaster in the U.S., Colorado State University, revised down its expectations for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season once already, and did it again in August:

• Named storms: 10 (down from 12)
• Hurricanes: 4 (down from 6)
• Major hurricanes: 2 (same as previous forecast)

Further, the Colorado forecasters predicted that the probability of a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline is 46% (down from 54%).

Forecasters warn that the number of storms, and their intensity is only one key determinant of risk of property damage and loss of life: The biggest factor is who lives in harm's way, and how well they prepare. Some 35 million U.S. residents live in hurricane-prone regions, and experts urge them to prepare.

When those storms do come, they will be given names. Tropical cyclones are given names when they achieve tropical storm strength, with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Hurricanes are tropical storms that have sustained winds that exceed 74 mph, and major hurricanes have sustained winds that exceed 111 mph.

2009 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Names - Atlantic

1. Tropical Storm Ana - Aug. 11-13
2. Hurricane Bill (Category 3) - Aug 15-24. Hurricane Bill made landfall on Newfoundland.
3. Tropical Storm Claudette - Aug. 16-17. Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall on Santa Rosa Island, Flor.
4. Tropical Storm Danny - Aug 26-
5. Erika
6. Fred
7. Grace
8. Henri
9. Ida
10. Joaquin
11. Kate
12. Larry
13. Mindy
14. Nicholas
15. Odette
16. Peter
17. Rose
18. Sam
19. Teresa
20. Victor
21. Wanda

2009 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Names - Eastern North Pacific

Names refer to the highest strength the storm reached, while dates refer to the dates during which the storm retained at least tropical storm strength.

1. Hurricane Andres (Category 1) - June 21-23
2. Tropical Storm Blanca - July 6-8
3. Hurricane Carlos (Category 1) - July 10-16
4. Tropical Storm Dolores - July 15-16
5. Tropical Storm Enrique - Aug. 3-7
6. Hurricane Felicia (Category 4) - Aug. 4-11
7. Hurricane Guillermo (Category 3) - Aug. 12-19
8. Tropical Storm Hilda - Aug. 22-23
9. Tropical Storm Ignacio - Aug. 24-27
10. Jimena
11. Kevin
12. Linda
13. Marty
14. Nora
15. Olaf
16. Patricia
17. Rick
18. Sandra
19. Terry
20. Vivian
21. Waldo
22. Xina
23. York
24. Zelda

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