Expect 4 More Tropical Storms, and 2 Hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane season is still active, thanks to La Nina, and we could see another four named tropical storms, two of which will grow into hurricanes in October and November, according to Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, scientists at Colorado State University. One of those hurricanes is predicted to grow into a major storm of Category 3 strength or greater, according to their updated forecast, released today.

Since their first forecast of the season, they have revised upwards, slightly, the number of tropical storms expected, and revised downward the number -- and duration -- of hurricanes. They predict a total of 17 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which will be major storms.

With 13 named storms so far, there have already been 35% more than the average over the 1950-2000 historical record. Two Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall -- both in Mexico -- within the space of days, a new record for a single season.

The prediction of an above-average end to the hurricane season is a result of the development of an La Nina pattern of ocean cooling in the Pacific -- which has corresponded with an increase in storm activity in the Atlantic in the past.

Their September forecast did completely not pan out. Though there were a record-tying number of named storms, few grew into formidable storms.

1. Tropical Storm Andrea, May 9-11
2. Tropical Storm Barry, June 1-2
3. Tropical Storm Chantal, July 31-Aug. 1
4. Hurricane Dean (Category 5), Aug. 14-23
5. Tropical Storm Erin, Aug. 15-16
6. Hurricane Felix (Category 5), Sep. 1-5
7. Tropical Storm Gabrielle, Sep. 8-10
8. Hurricane Humberto (Category 1), Sep. 12-13
9. Tropical Storm Ingrid, Sep. 14-15
10. Tropical Storm Jerry, Sep. 23-24
11. *Tropical Storm Karen, Sep. 25-29
12. Hurricane Lorenzo (Category 1), Sep. 27-28
13. Tropical Storm Melissa, Sep. 29-30

*Tropical Storm Karen may be upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane in a post-season analysis, based on observations that it briefly reached hurricane strength.

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