Farmer's Almanac Predicts Icy Winter

The winter along the East Coast will fall 3 degrees short of normal, and heavy snow will blanket the region, even while warmer-than-usual temperatures are visited on the West. So says the Farmer's Almanac, the venerable if outdated prognosticator, according to the Associated Press. The Farmer's Almanac is fun, and some of its homespun wisdom is as useful as it is amusing.

But at a time when even the most sophisticated weather satellites and an ever-growing understanding of atmospheric physics can often do little better than predict next Tuesday's chance of rain, it's wise to be wary of forecasts based on a "secret formula developed in 1792," heavily dependent on changes in sunspot activity, as the Almanac does. And even the Almanac publishes this caveat:

"It is obvious that neither we nor anyone else has as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict weather long-range with anything resembling total accuracy."

Indeed. For the record, the Climate Prediction Center, the branch of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration responsible for marshaling the best scientific knowledge in pursuit of better long-range forecasts, predicts the next three months will be above-average in temperature across most of the country.

COMMENTS ()