New York Hurricane? Forecast Is Mum

Every 70 to 90 years, a hurricane has hit New York City, and the 70th anniversary of the last storm is just around the corner -- raising the prospect, in this storm season, that another storm on the scale of the 1938 "Long Island Express" might hit a coastline that has grown much more populous in the intervening years. To see a video explaining what a hurricane of that magnitude would do to the city, scroll down.

Thursday, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center released its latest hurricane season forecast -- upping the probability that the Atlantic will produce an above-average number of storms from 75% to 85%. While the number of storms predicted is down slightly, the chance of multiple storms is seen as very likely. The heart of the Atlantic storm season is just getting underway -- as most typically come in August, September and into October.

"It's not possible to confidently predict number of intensity of landfall, or wether any particular locality will be affected," said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster for the Climate Prediction Center. ABC Meteorologist Bill Evans has written a book, "Category 7" (Tom Doherty Associates, 2007) that imagines a science fiction scenario involving a villainous weather manipulator unleashing a hurricane on New York City. But as fantastic as that plot sounds, the real impact of a real hurricane in real time on a real city, according to a Evans' research, could be far more devastating than a comparable storm on the Gulf Coast.

In this exclusive video interview with The Daily Green News Editor Dan Shapley, Evans explains what a Category 3 hurricane would do to the nation's largest city, how its residents would be evacuated, and what New Yorkers don't know -- but should -- about a surprisingly possible scenario. (To learn about New York's hurricane response plan, click here.)

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