Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

A satellite photograph of Hurricane Dean in the Gulf of Mexico. Dean was one of two back-to-back Category 5 Atlantic storms to make landfall in 2007.

Photo: NOAA

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, and forecasters from government, business and academic institutions are unanimous: We should expect an above-average hurricane season. The first tropical storm, whenever it forms, will be named Arthur.

The forecast from the government's Climate Prediction Center says it's likely that 2008 will be an active year for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean. For gamblers, there's a 65% probability that we'll see an above-average storm season, a 25% chance it will be average and just 10% that it will be below average.

What does that mean? It means there's a good chance we'll see 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

Average is 11 named storms including six hurricanes, two of them major storms.

The hurricane season officially begins June 1, though storms typically reach a peak in late summer.

Last season did not produce the predicted number of storms. There were more named storms but fewer hurricanes than predicted. Those hurricanes that did form intensified rapidly before landfall, and the first-ever record of back-to-back Category 5 landfalls came when Hurricanes Dean and Felix hit Central America. (The names Dean and Felix, along with Noel, a weaker but deadly 2007 Caribbean storm, have been retired.)

"Americans in hurricane-prone states must get serious and be prepared. Government – even with the federal, tribal, state and local governments working perfectly in sync – is not the entire answer. Everyone is part of the emergency management process," FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison warned recently. "We must continue to develop a culture of preparedness in America in which every American takes personal responsibility for his or her own emergency preparedness.”

The last several months have seen a flurry of science related to global warming and hurricanes. A longtime proponent of the idea that warmer ocean temperatures will produce stronger storms, Kerry Emanuel, has called that hypothesis into doubt. But the government has said that warmer oceans will produce fewer, but stronger storms in the coming decades. The jury, it seems, is still out, as scientists study the complex forces that influence hurricane behavior.

This year, a lingering La Niña (cool pattern) in the Southern Pacific, warmth in the tropical Atlantic, and the strong-phase of a multidecadal storm activity cycle are expected to be driving forces behind an active storm year.

2008 Atlantic Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Names

Arthur
Bertha
Christobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

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