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Is It Time to Get Worried About the 2008 Hurricane Season?

This isn't normal.

It's getting into the final part of July, and already we've had four named storms in the Atlantic region--and good reason to expect that we may see a fifth before August. Moreover, the types of storms we're seeing are also troubling.

 map of heating in gulf of mexico july 20 2008

Warming in the Gulf of Mexico, July 20, 2008

In particular, the finally dissipated Hurricane Bertha set all manner of records, most of them associated with longevity and strength so early in the season. That includes becoming the longest lived Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in July, and the third strongest ever recorded in that month (and sixth strongest overall among pre-August hurricanes).

And now we're looking at a likely Hurricane Dolly, which will get the chance to churn over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere (presumably) along the Mexico or Texas Gulf coast.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has just begun to track a strong tropical wave--much like the precursor to Bertha--that is emerging off of the African Coast. The strongest Atlantic hurricanes, dubbed Cape Verde-type storms, generally form from such waves--and generally do so later in the season. But that's not the case in 2008.

Granted, this year isn't starting off quite as busily as 2005--which featured no less than six named storms by the end of July. Still, it could be very close.






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