hurricanes

Recently I blogged about my fears about this upcoming hurricane season. I'm not the only one.

Reuters recently reported that many experts are worried. Fellow storm bloggers Jeff Masters and Eric Berger are worried. Heck, everybody is worried.

Berger points out that if we look at a quantity called ACE--or, "accumulated cyclone energy," which is basically a combined measure of hurricane numbers, strength, and duration-there are only three years in the historical record that had shown more activity than this one in June and/or July. They are 2005, 1933, and 1916. And here's where it gets interesting: 2005 was the worst year ever, with 28 storms, and 1933 was the second worst, with 21.

Not good company to be in.

[Storm Tracks of the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season. Note all the smackage of the U.S. coastline.]

Granted, hurricane seasons are tricky things. They love to defy expectations. For example, the U.S. took a very serious battering during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2004, when four powerful storms rammed Florida. But four years ago in July of 2004, you wouldn't have been able to see that coming. The very first storm of that year, Alex, didn't even form until July 31^st.

Or consider the 2006 hurricane season: It had a notably quiet August, a very active September, and an almost completely dead October. The atmosphere is a complicated place.

Still, I'm expecting that when the next round of seasonal hurricane forecasts comes out-the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's prediction for the rest of the year is due in early August, and another prediction from Colorado State University can be expected to come out August 5-they'll be quite bullish in terms of what they foresee for the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, southern Texas must be reeling right now from our fourth storm of the year, Dolly, which hit (the experts say) as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2. Either way, it was the strongest storm to hit the United States since Hurricane Wilma shook Florida as a Category 3 monster in October of 2005.

Speaking of which...there's another of those historical analogue years.

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This isn't normal.

It's getting into the final part of July, and already we've had four named storms in the Atlantic region--and good reason to expect that we may see a fifth before August. Moreover, the types of storms we're seeing are also troubling.

Warming in the Gulf of Mexico, July 20, 2008

In particular, the finally dissipated Hurricane Bertha set all manner of records, most of them associated with longevity and strength so early in the season. That includes becoming the longest lived Atlantic hurricane ever recorded in July, and the third strongest ever recorded in that month (and sixth strongest overall among pre-August hurricanes).

And now we're looking at a likely Hurricane Dolly, which will get the chance to churn over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere (presumably) along the Mexico or Texas Gulf coast.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has just begun to track a strong tropical wave--much like the precursor to Bertha--that is emerging off of the African Coast. The strongest Atlantic hurricanes, dubbed Cape Verde-type storms, generally form from such waves--and generally do so later in the season. But that's not the case in 2008.

Granted, this year isn't starting off quite as busily as 2005--which featured no less than six named storms by the end of July. Still, it could be very close.

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